Positive
Project advancing - milestone achieved
High Impact
Major milestone or critical setback
Forecast estimate. Per SolarPACES (fetched 2026-05-15) verbatim: 'A third cable which will link Tunisia to the south of France, possibly to Marseille, is under study, and will possibly transfer slightly under another 2000MW.' No developer FID, no published timeline, no regulatory filing. TuNur Phase 1 (Tunisia-Italy, ~1000 km, 2 GW) is Phase 3's nearest reference and has been 'under development' since 2011 without reaching FID. Phase 3 is at the earliest stage of the TuNur programme. Central case COD 2040 reflects the speculative post-2035 horizon for a 2 GW HVDC Mediterranean link that hasn't begun feasibility consultation, isn't on ENTSO-E TYNDP, and faces Italian/French regulatory hurdles. ESTIMATED provenance with explicit LOW confidence — most speculative of the speculative-6 bucket. Supersede when developer publishes a quantified timeline.