Positive
Project advancing - milestone achieved
High Impact
Major milestone or critical setback
Quarter-precision projection — IJmuiden Ver Gamma-B 40-year permit and lease equivalent expected to be awarded to the winning tenderer in Q1 2027 by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) on behalf of the Dutch Minister of Climate Policy and Green Growth, following the temporary subsidy-based tender closing in December 2026. Under the Dutch tender mechanism (Wet windenergie op zee), the awarded permit grants the winning party the exclusive seabed-use right to build, operate and decommission the 1 GW offshore wind farm at the Gamma-B site for a 40-year term — functioning as the lease-equivalent instrument in the Dutch offshore wind regime. This event projects the same Q1 2027 anchor as the parallel revenue_secured subsidy decision because the Dutch process awards permit, subsidy and lease rights in a single integrated decision (mirroring the IJV Alpha precedent of 11 June 2024, where the same date marked both the permit grant and the lease right under Wet windenergie op zee, and the parallel Gamma-A projection on the same Q1 2027 anchor). Anchor: the 3 April 2026 announcement letter from Minister van Veldhoven-van der Meer states "The Government expects to be able to award the permits in the first quarter of 2027, provided there are sufficient bids in the tenders." Confidence is moderate — pre-FID slippage in Dutch tenders has been routine (IJV Alpha originally targeted FID late 2025 from a June 2024 award and missed by 12+ months); the Gamma-B timeline could shift later if the December 2026 tender attracts fewer bids than expected.