Commercial Operations Full Power

Year-precision projection — full commercial operation by end-2030. Reasoning on public information: - TenneT's IJmuiden Ver Alpha 2 GW HVDC grid connection (project 69b92f6fde21e436def00d6a) was planned for Q3 2029 in the Dutch Routekaart Wind op Zee (Jetten letter, 25 Apr 2024), with TenneT internal master-programme first_power 1 Sep 2028 and GCS COD 31 Dec 2029. - Alpha was on the Hitachi/Petrofac TSO consortium that had identified acceleration possibilities. On 23 Oct 2025 TenneT partially terminated the Petrofac scope; Larsen & Toubro joined Hitachi Energy as replacement contractor on 30 Oct 2025. The transition removes Alpha's acceleration buffer and likely adds 6-12 months to grid commissioning, bringing realistic grid COD to Q1-Q2 2030. - The Noordzeker consortium (SSE Renewables, ABP, APG) is still pre-FID. SSE's HY26 interim results (12 Nov 2025) did not disclose FID. Minister Hermans is in talks with Noordzeker about realisation (energeia.nl, 1 Oct 2025). FID projected end-2026. - With FID end-2026 + 3-4 year build, wind-farm COD lands in late-2029 to late-2030. Combined with grid COD ~Q1/Q2 2030 and 6-12 month post-grid wind-farm tail, late-2030 is the realistic anchor. - The Oct 2025 'not before 2033' slip refers to the cumulative 21 GW target, driven by back-of-queue Doordewind I / Nederwiek noord II-III. Alpha is front-of-queue and does not inherit the back-of-queue slip directly. Risk skew: if the L&T transition is rougher than expected or FID slips to 2027, COD plausibly shifts to 2031.