First Power

Projected first electricity export from Hollandse Kust West VIII is inferred at year-end 2034 from a chain of source-derived sequencing anchors. The 25 April 2024 Jetten letter (Update aanvullende routekaart wind op zee, Kamerstuk DGKE-DRE/52795804) states verbatim that the HKW VIII grid connection to the 150 kV Velsen station "zal naar verwachting na 2031 gerealiseerd worden". The 16 September 2025 Hermans Actieplan windenergie op zee adds the load-bearing constraint that "TenneT geen verplichtingen is aangegaan voor de kavels Ten Noorden van de Waddeneilanden en Hollandse Kust West 8" — TenneT has not yet entered supplier commitments for the HKW VIII net op zee, and the site is excluded from the binding 21 GW Routekaart-by-2032 commitment. The 150 kV Velsen capacity is contested with Tata Steel's electrification: Tata Steel Nederland's 27 May 2024 announcement targets the DRP + EAF Phase 1 "to go into operation by as soon as 2030", with FID still pending at the 29 September 2025 Joint Letter of Intent stage. Realistic chain: Tata FID c. 2026 → Tata DRP operational c. 2030-2031 → Velsen capacity for HKW VIII clear c. 2027-2028 → ministerial HKW VIII tender decision c. 2028 → tender c. 2028-2029 → award c. 2029-2030 → ~4.5 yr construction (consistent with HKW VI/VII tender Dec 2022 to COD 2027-early 2028, and IJmuiden Ver Alpha tender 2024 to COD Q3 2029) → first power c. 2034. The projection will be revised once Tata FID lands and TenneT contracts the net op zee.